Pig International - July/August 2017 - 5
PigInternational ❙ 5
biggest beneﬁciaries of lower prices due to high supply
and competitive markets.
The USDA calculates that smaller markets, like
Australia, Colombia and the Philippines, will import more pork this year.
The United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA) estimates that pork exports
will gain 5 percent in 2017. The European Union
(EU) continues as the top exporter, thanks to
demand from China. Chinese pork imports will
remain at historically high levels as domestic production remains low.
Mexico will increase imports thanks to lower
U.S. pork prices and strong processing
demand, while shipments to Japan
and South Korea will be relatively stable. Imports
to Russia will fall as
that nation increases
its domestic production.
On the plus side, the
USDA calculates that
smaller markets, like
Australia, Colombia and the
Philippines, will import
more pork this year.
One of the most consistent points made by swine
market analysts is the fact
that sows are producing
more piglets. That means
that a smaller sow herd does
not necessarily equate to less
pig production. As the U.S.
swine industry data for 2016
show, with 1 percent more sows
than in 2015, they produced 4 percent
more pigs than a year earlier. Therefore,
while higher output per sow may be great
for producers, it causes national production
tonnage to keep rising even when sow
numbers stand still or decline.
Based on an FAO report from October
July/August 2017 ❙ www.WATTAgNet.com
2016, the regional distribution of swine production is:
Asia-Paciﬁc 56.36 percent, Europe and Russia 24.36
percent, North America (U.S. and Canada) 11.52
percent, Latin America 6.59 percent and Africa 1.17
In 2014, the regional distribution was: AsiaPacific 58 percent, Europe and Russia 24 percent,
North America (U.S. and Canada) 11 percent,
Latin America 6 percent and Africa 1 percent.
The regional changes in production in the last
two years have seen Asia drop by 1.5 percent,
while North America and Latin America have each
grown by 0.5 percent. Europe with Russia and
Africa have basically remained the same.
China: importer supreme
China, as the world's largest
pork producer and importer, was
the country with the largest swine production drop in 2016, producing less than
in all the previous years since 2012. The
drop from 2015 to 2016 was almost 3.5 percent,
while in 2016 China produced nearly 1 percent less
pork than it did in 2012.
The USDA notes that China's herd size fell by 25
million pigs between 2012 and 2015. In 2017, Chinese
pork production is expected to drop again, but only
marginally, with the industry ﬁnding some stability.
USDA data shows that China ended 2016 with a
38 million head sow herd, which should result in domestic pork production of 51 mmt in 2017, down from
nearly 53 mmt in 2016. China's sow herd fell to low
levels in 2016 due to large-scale culling as a result of
low pork prices. China's sow herd in 2015 was 47 million head.
Low Chinese production does have a positive impact on the pork exporting nations, particularly the EU
and the U.S. China, as the world's top pork importer,
with record-setting imports in 2016, is expected to
account for over 25 percent of global trade in 2017.
The EU gets the biggest beneﬁt of China's imports,
accounting for a 70 percent market share. The U.S.
represents 17 percent of China's pork imports.